The outcome in Iran is emerging as a two-staged agreement where, in the second stage, Iran agrees to as-yet undefined limits on its nuclear program over a period of ten to twenty years. President Trump will declare victory, but he will have a hard time explaining how his agreement is much better than former president Obama's 2015 ten-to-fifteen year deal that he criticized and cashiered.

Yet, with the destruction of so much of Iran’s weaponry and its military-industrial complex, he has set back Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon for years in a way the Obama did not. And, with a decade of advances in remote surveillance technology, arguably, American ability to detect deal violations will be robust, enabling immediate responses.
Beyond trading removal of the American blockade for Iran’s opening of the Strait of Hormuz in the first stage, we do not know what Iranian demands he will have to meet to reach a deal. No deal is ever one-sided.













